Global Terrorism Index 2025 Key Findings.

 

Terrorism remains a persistent global threat, with 2024 marking another year of shifting patterns and evolving challenges with the geographic reach of terrorism spreading. The number of countries experiencing at least one terrorist incident increased from 58 to 66, the most countries affected since 2018. In 2024, more countries deteriorated than improved for the first time in seven years, with 45 countries reporting a higher impact from terrorism, while only 34 showed improvement. Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organisation in 2024, responsible for 1,805 deaths across 22 countries. The four major terrorist organisations, IS, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and al-Shabaab continued to increase their activity, with deaths attributed to these groups increasing by 11 per cent to 4,204. In 2023, these groups were active in 29 countries which increased to 30 countries in 2024. In 2024, 36 per cent of terrorist attacks were not claimed by an organisation. IEP has developed a machine learning model to assign these incidents to likely groups. The analysis found that deaths attributed to IS would have been 58 per cent higher, while those linked to JNIM would have been 176 per cent higher. This underscores the challenges in accurately assessing the impact of different terrorist organisations. In 2024, deaths from terrorism fell to 7,555, representing a 13 per cent decline from the previous year. This reduction was entirely due to the large spike in the prior year from the Hamas October 7th attack, otherwise deaths would have been approximately the same. The number of terrorist attacks also declined, falling by three per cent to 3,492. The drop in incidents was primarily driven by an 85 per cent decrease in terrorist activity in Myanmar. Excluding Myanmar, global terrorist attacks would have increased by eight per cent. In the West, lone actor terrorism is on the rise with terrorist attacks increasing from 32 to 52 in 2024. These attacks are typically carried out by youths, often in their teens, who have no formal ties to terrorist organisations. Instead, they become radicalised through online content, constructing personal ideologies that often blend conflicting viewpoints influenced via access to fringe forums, gaming environments, encrypted messaging apps and the dark web. Because there are no affiliations, it means these types of attacks are difficult for intelligence agencies to track. Social media algorithms also accentuate biases, pushing disaffected youth towards more radicalised content. In Europe, one in five persons arrested for terrorism is legally classified as a child. In Europe, terrorist incidents doubled to 67, including attacks by IS and Hamas. The resurgence of attacks was particularly notable in seven Western countries - Sweden, Australia, Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland, with Germany being the worst ranked nation at 27th on the Index. There are now seven Western countries ranked amongst the 50 most impacted countries on the GTI. Meanwhile, in the US, antisemitic and Islamophobic hate crimes escalated sharply following the start of the Gaza war, with FBI-recorded incidents targeting the Jewish community rising by 270 per cent in just two months. Similar patterns emerged in Europe and Australia, where attacks on synagogues were reported throughout the year. Terrorism in the Sahel has increased significantly, with deaths rising nearly tenfold since 2019. In 2024, the Sahel accounted for 51 per cent of all terrorism deaths, while overall conflict deaths in the region exceeded 25,000 for the first time since the inception of the Index. Of these, 3,885 were attributed to terrorism. Terrorism deaths here are now ten times higher than in 2019. The Sahel remains the global epicentre of terrorism, accounting for over half of all terrorism-related deaths in 2024 with the number of countries affected increasing. Five of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are in this region. Although Burkina Faso remains the most affected country, both deaths and attacks declined, falling by 21 and 57 per cent respectively, however the country is still responsible for a fifth of all terrorism deaths globally. Niger highlights how fragile progress in reducing terrorism deaths can be. In 2024, the country recorded the largest increase in terrorism deaths globally, rising by 94 per cent to a total of 930, reversing previous improvements from 2022 when it had the second largest improvement. Niger’s example may mean that the improvements in Burkina Faso are transitory. Geopolitical changes continue to shape security dynamics across the Sahel. The Alliance of Sahelian States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has moved away from the West, instead strengthening ties with Russia and China. This shift, along with the bloc’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, has created opportunities for groups such as JNIM to expand their activities into coastal West Africa. Togo recorded its worst year for terrorism since the inception of the Index, reflecting the broader spread of terrorist activity beyond the Sahel’s traditional hotspots. Competition over natural resources, especially gold, has also played a role in the region’s instability. Niger, the world’s seventh largest uranium producer, has also attracted growing international interest as global powers seek to secure access to critical materials. Russia and China have strengthened their presence in the region, offering security and economic support with fewer conditions than Western counterparts. Meanwhile, France has continued its military withdrawal from West Africa, signalling a broader shift in influence away from the West. Russia’s war in Ukraine has had an impact on its operations in sub-Saharan Africa, with some of its resources being diverted towards the war. Russia’s growing involvement in the Sahel has included influence campaigns aimed at reshaping local perceptions of Western governments, including their counterterrorism efforts. These campaigns have materially influenced rising anti-French sentiment in Sahelian countries. IS continues to function as a global network, maintaining its presence across multiple regions through affiliated groups. In 2024, it was active in 22 countries across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Europe. Despite counterterrorism efforts, the group’s ability to coordinate, inspire, and execute attacks highlights its resilience and evolving operational strategies. Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were the countries most affected by IS activity in 2024. Syria alone accounted for 369 of the 559 IS attacks globally and resulted in 708 deaths. The instability following the fall of the Assad regime has provided the conditions necessary for terrorist groups to regroup and expand, with IS capitalising on the shifting geopolitical landscape. Since 2020, traditional foreign influence in Syria has diminished, with Russia, China, and Iran reducing their roles while Türkiye emerges as a dominant regional power. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), once a key partner of the US in the fight against IS, now face mounting challenges. Türkiye's opposition to a strengthened SDF, coupled with the potential scaling back of US support, has created conditions that IS could exploit to regain strength. The new US administration’s position on the SDF is still unclear. In West Africa, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) remains a major security concern. Although its activity has declined, the group remains locked in violent conflict with Boko Haram, leading to significant casualties and resource losses. In 2024 terrorism deaths attributed to the chapter declined by 46 per cent to 178. ISWA recorded no deaths in Benin, or Burkina Faso in 2024. These countries are now dominated by JNIM. Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK), originally formed to counter the Taliban, has expanded into one of the most active jihadist groups worldwide. Since its formation in 2015, ISK has steadily extended its reach beyond Afghanistan into Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and Central Asia. In 2024, ISK was responsible for two of the deadliest terrorist attacks, one in Iran and another in Russia. ISK has intensified its recruitment efforts, producing multilingual propaganda targeting South and Central Asia. ISK linguistic reach is particularly notable, with content produced in Pashto, Dari, Arabic, Urdu, Farsi, Uzbek, Tajik, English, and more recently, Russian and Turkish. It also provides remote instruction in tactics, target selection, and weapons procurement from official ISK members. In 2024, authorities disrupted 24 publicised plots linked to IS or its affiliates, including five in Israel, four in the US and others in Iran, Türkiye, Germany, France, Sweden and Russia, which included high-profile attempts at the Paris Olympics and a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna. As intelligence agencies rarely disclose such plots, the reported numbers likely represent a fraction of the total. Over the next decade AI will be embraced by both terrorist organisations and counter-intelligence agencies. These technologies provide new avenues for terrorist expansion. AI can produce believable deep fake content, provide immersive experiences, better intelligence on targets and produce believable tailored propaganda, faster. This presents significant challenges for counter-terrorism efforts. However, the same technologies also offer opportunities for intelligence agencies to enhance their operations by improving the detection and removal of malicious sites, identifying radicalisation as it occurs in real time, and crafting targeted counter-narratives to reach those at risk. The future of terrorism in part will be decided by AI and its application. Technology, particularly artificial intelligence, is rapidly changing the dynamics of how terrorist organisations communicate and recruit. For example, ISK is producing content that ranges from high quality online magazines to AI-enhanced video, including news programs. This enables the quick production of high-quality. localised propaganda. The wide range of countries within which it is active demonstrates its ability to inspire and recruit from diverse nationalities. Encrypted messaging applications have given extremists secure channels for organising and communicating. Platforms like Telegram and Rocket provide private, invitation-only spaces. At the same time, the dark web provides a hub for illicit activities and ideological exchanges, further amplifying exposure and radicalisation risks. Despite a decline in total terrorism deaths, the findings of the GTI 2025 underscore the shifting nature of global terrorism. As the intensity of attacks increases, new epicentres emerge, and geopolitical tensions shape security landscapes, terrorism remains a highly adaptive and persistent threat. 

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